Figured I should get some Oscar predictions out there, since the ceremony is, like, tonight. They’re going to be relatively terse, though – my computer died on Friday and my newly ordered one has not yet arrived, so I’m tapping this out on my iPhone. Which is not optimal for writing at length. So you can thank my old computer for saving you from my verbosity.<\/p>\n
Predicted winners are denotes by an asterisk, since I don’t know if I can use HTML in the WordPress app. EDIT: Adding HTML from a computer. ;) Italics for my predictions, bold for actual winners.<\/p>\n
BEST PICTURE
\nThe Curious Case of Benjamin Button
\nFrost\/Nixon
\nMilk
\nThe Reader
\nSlumdog Millionaire<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n
Slumdog has the momentum, and none of the others are going to catch it.<\/p>\n
BEST DIRECTOR
\nDavid Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
\nRon Howard – Frost\/Nixon
\nGus Van Sant – Milk
\nDanny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n
Picture and director almost always go together, and Slumdog is so clearly Boyle’s film that there’s no question in my mind this year.<\/p>\n
BEST ACTOR
\nFrank Langella – Frost\/Nixon
\nRichard Jenkins – The Visitor
\nSean Penn – Milk<\/b>
\nBrad Pitt – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
\nMickey Rourke – The Wrestler<\/i><\/p>\n
Rourke is the obvious choice, with the personal comeback story and the Golden Globe (and an Independent Spirit Award earlier this week, I think), but I’ve seen a lot of support for Penn lately. This one could go either way.<\/p>\n
BEST ACTRESS
\nAnne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married
\nAngelina Jolie – Changeling
\nMelissa Leo – Frozen River
\nMeryl Streep – Doubt
\nKate Winslet – The Reader<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n
This is the most unpredictable category of the night as far as I’m concerned. I haven’t seen Changeling and highly doubt Angelina has a chance, but all the other four are worthy. Melissa Leo is probably out; Frozen River was released too early and is too small. But between Anne, Meryl, and Kate, it’s kind of a crap shoot. I’m going with Kate because she’s due (and deserves it for both The Reader and Revolutionary Road), and I think Anne’s buzz has peaked and fallen. And Meryl already has some, for better movies than Doubt.<\/p>\n
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
\nJosh Brolin – Milk
\nRobert Downey Jr – Tropic Thunder
\nPhilip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt
\nHeath Ledger – The Dark Knight<\/i><\/b>
\nMichael Shannon – Revolutionary Road<\/p>\n
The Academy likes to use Supporting Actor to throw a completely unsuspected win, but I will be very surprised if anyone other than Ledger wins.<\/p>\n
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
\nAmy Adams – Doubt
\nPenelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona<\/i><\/b>
\nViola Davis – Doubt
\nTaraji P Henson – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
\nMarisai Tomei – The Wrestler<\/p>\n
Penelope should have this one in the bag, despite all these actresses being worthy. The only potential upset is probably Viola Davis, whose brief time onscreen was the most memorable part of Doubt.<\/p>\n
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
\nFrozen River
\nHappy-Go-Lucky
\nIn Bruges
\nMilk<\/i><\/b>
\nWall-E<\/p>\n
I don’t have a strong feeling about this one; I doubt In Bruges can pull off another upset after the Globes. I’ve heard Milk buzz in this category lately, so we’ll go with that.<\/p>\n
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
\nThe Curious Case of Benjamin Button
\nDoubt
\nFrost\/Nixon
\nThe Reader
\nSlumdog Millionaire<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n
It is written. It may be cheesy at times, but it is written.<\/p>\n
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
\nBolt
\nKung Fu Panda
\nWall-E<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n
There’s more support for Kung Fu Panda than I would’ve expected, but I’d be surprised (and a bit dismayed) if Wall-E loses.<\/p>\n
BEST FOREIGN FILM
\nThe Baader Meinhof Complex
\nThe Class
\nDepartures<\/b>
\nRevanche
\nWaltz with Bashir<\/i><\/p>\n
Waltz won the Globe and will likely win here. Wish I’d made time to see it. EDIT: I LOSE! I haven’t even heard of Departures<\/i>.<\/p>\n
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
\nThe Betrayal
\nEncounters at the End of the World
\nThe Garden
\nMan on Wire<\/i><\/b>
\nTrouble the Water<\/p>\n
Everything I’ve heard about Man on Wire rates it among the best films of the year, period, let alone documentaries. Only possible upset is the post-Katrina Trouble the Water.<\/p>\n
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
\nChangeling
\nThe Curious Case of Benjamin Button
\nThe Dark Knight
\nThe Reader
\nSlumdog Millionaire<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n
Going with the likely Best Picture winner for Cinematography and Editing isn’t always safe, but it’s not a bad bet either. But either Benjamin Button or The Dark Knight could easily win as well.<\/p>\n
BEST FILM EDITING
\nThe Curious Case of Benjamin Button
\nThe Dark Knight
\nFrost\/Nixon
\nMilk
\nSlumdog Millionaire<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n
Ditto above, except that it’s extremely likely The Dark Knight will win instead. I’m just currently on a mini-vendetta against TDK’s editing style.<\/p>\n
BEST ART DIRECTION
\nChangeling
\nThe Curious Case of Benjamin Button<\/b>
\nThe Dark Knight
\nThe Duchess
\nRevolutionary Road<\/i><\/p>\n
Damned if I’m not going to choose Revolutionary Road for something, and this seems the most likely – I really loved the spare design. Subtle, but felt so right.<\/p>\n
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
\nAustralia
\nThe Curious Case of Benjamin Button<\/i>
\nThe Duchess<\/b>
\nMilk
\nRevolutionary Road<\/p>\n
Costumes were one of the things I thought Benjamin Button did really well – not only did they use costumes from throughout the 20th century, but the costumes served in large part as narrative cues to the changing time periods. EDIT: Should’ve known to go with the only non-20th-century-set film nominated. Apparently the Academy doesn’t think anything within living memory counts in this category…<\/p>\n
BEST MAKEUP
\nThe Curious Case of Benjamin Button<\/i><\/b>
\nThe Dark Knight
\nHellboy II: The Golden Army<\/p>\n
Could go to TDK just as easily, but I’m giving the edge to Button, since TDK was basically just the Joker.<\/p>\n
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
\nThe Curious Case of Benjamin Button
\nDefiance
\nMilk
\nSlumdog Millionaire<\/i><\/b>
\nWall-E<\/p>\n
So much of Slumdog’s appeal is in the music, plus it’s a huge part of the film’s infusion from Bollywood cinema.<\/p>\n
BEST SONG
\n“Down to Earth” – Wall-E
\n“Jai Ho” – Slumdog Millionaire<\/b>
\n“O Saya” – Slumdog Millionaire<\/i><\/p>\n
I don’t know which song from Slumdog will win, but one of them will.<\/p>\n
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
\nThe Curious Case of Benjamin Button<\/b>
\nThe Dark Knight<\/i>
\nIron Man<\/p>\n
This is a dead heat for me among all thee nominees. I have no idea what the Academy will do, but I’m betting they’ll honor TDK in some of these technical categories, since they shut it out of most of the major awards. EDIT: I originally chose Benjamin Button in this category, then changed my mind at the last second. Should’ve trusted my instincts.<\/p>\n
BEST SOUND EDITING
\nThe Dark Knight<\/i><\/b>
\nIron Man
\nSlumdog Millionaire
\nWall-E
\nWanted<\/p>\n
Ditto above. They may give one of these to Iron Man as well, but I couldn’t guess which.<\/p>\n
BEST SOUND MIXING
\nThe Curious Case of Benjamin Button
\nThe Dark Knight<\/i>
\nSlumdog Millionaire<\/b>
\nWall-E
\nWanted<\/p>\n
Ditto above.<\/p>\n
BEST SHORT (ANIMATED)
\nLa maison en petits cubes<\/b>
\nLavatory – Lovestory
\nOktapodi
\nPresto
\nThis Way Up<\/i><\/p>\n
I usually have to pick shorts based on title, but this year I’ve actually seen the last two, and I feel like picking the charmingly morbid Sundance short This Way Up rather than Pixar’s Presto. Don’t know how it’ll go, though – my animator friend told me he didn’t get screeners of any of the shorts before he had to vote.<\/p>\n
BEST SHORT (LIVE ACTION)
\nAuf der Strecke (On the Line)
\nManon on the Asphalt
\nNew Boy
\nThe Pig
\nSpielzeugland (Toyland)<\/i><\/b><\/p>\n
Titles again! Don’t love any of these titles, so let’s take long German words for the win! EDIT: As soon as I saw the clip for this and found out it was a Nazi-era film, I knew I was right. Nazis are GOLD at the Oscars, man.<\/p>\n
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
\nThe Conscience of Nhem Ens
\nThe Final Inch
\nSmile Pinki<\/b>
\nThe Witness from the Balcony of Room 306<\/i><\/p>\n
Again, it’s all about the title. That one sounds mysterious, doesn’t it?<\/p>\n
—————-<\/p>\n
Done! And still with an hour to spare. :)<\/p>\n
POST-CEREMONY EDIT
\nI ended up with fifteen of twenty-four correct, and most of the ones I missed weren’t major awards. I’m content with that. And also, yay for Penelope and Kate! Irony – one of the actress presenters was Nicole Kidman, who I believe was originally cast in The Reader until she got pregnant and Kate stepped in. No offense to Nicole, who I love, but Kate is better – and probably still would’ve won the Oscar this year, just for Revolutionary Road instead.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Figured I should get some Oscar predictions out there, since the ceremony is, like, tonight. They’re going to be relatively terse, though – my computer died on Friday and my newly ordered one has not yet arrived, so I’m tapping this out on my iPhone. Which is not optimal for writing at length. So you […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2],"tags":[533],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":1983,"url":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/2009\/01\/66th-annual-golden-globes-thoughts\/","url_meta":{"origin":2078,"position":0},"title":"66th Annual Golden Globes – Thoughts","author":"Jandy","date":"January 12, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"And spoilers, so if for whatever reason you haven't watched it yet and don't want to know winners - you're probably screwed, since it'll likely pop up in your feedreader, on your TV, in your newspaper, etc. But at least I warned you, so there. Golden Globe spoilers after the\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Film"","block_context":{"text":"Film","link":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/category\/film\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1967,"url":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/2009\/01\/review-the-curious-case-of-benjamin-button\/","url_meta":{"origin":2078,"position":1},"title":"Review: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button","author":"Jandy","date":"January 12, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"directed by David Fincher starring: Brad Pitt, Cate Blanchett, Tilda Swinton USA 2008; screened 7 January 2009 at Laemmle Theatres Benjamin Button is different than every one else. He was born old, and grows younger as everyone else grows older. Along the way he lives as an ancient-looking child in\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Film"","block_context":{"text":"Film","link":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/category\/film\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"benjamin-button","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2009\/01\/benjamin-button.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1027,"url":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/2008\/02\/oscar-predictions\/","url_meta":{"origin":2078,"position":2},"title":"Oscar Predictions","author":"Jandy","date":"February 20, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"The Oscars are four days away, and I figure it's about time I throw some predictions out there. Also, I don't want the entire front page of the blog to be all American Idol posts, so I had to post about something else. 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This is a fun pastime, one I've certainly indulged in it myself (as evidenced by\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Film"","block_context":{"text":"Film","link":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/category\/film\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/Oscar-feat1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/Oscar-feat1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/Oscar-feat1.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]},{"id":3265,"url":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/2010-oscar-prediction-time\/","url_meta":{"origin":2078,"position":4},"title":"2010 Oscar Prediction Time!","author":"Jandy","date":"March 7, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"We're only a day away from the Academy Awards, and I figured I'd put up a few prediction thoughts. We'll be live-blogging the ceremony itself over on Row Three, so look out for that starting around 4pm PST. Plus, if you think you've got a good peg on the awards\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Film"","block_context":{"text":"Film","link":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/category\/film\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1117,"url":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/2008\/04\/trailer-watch\/","url_meta":{"origin":2078,"position":5},"title":"Trailer Watch!","author":"Jandy","date":"April 15, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"Haven't done one of these for a long time, but I defend myself on the grounds that there hasn't been hardly anything released yet this year worth watching. 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