{"id":3265,"date":"2010-03-07T00:43:58","date_gmt":"2010-03-07T05:43:58","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/?p=3265"},"modified":"2010-03-07T00:57:15","modified_gmt":"2010-03-07T05:57:15","slug":"2010-oscar-prediction-time","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/2010\/03\/2010-oscar-prediction-time\/","title":{"rendered":"2010 Oscar Prediction Time!"},"content":{"rendered":"

We’re only a day away from the Academy Awards, and I figured I’d put up a few prediction thoughts. We’ll be live-blogging the ceremony itself over on Row Three<\/a>, so look out for that starting around 4pm PST. Plus, if you think you’ve got a good peg on the awards this year, throw your predictions into the Row Three Oscar Pool<\/a> for a chance to win a sweet minimalist Reservoir Dogs<\/em> poster (valued at $99). My predictions are already in the comments over there, but I’d like to say a bit more about them over here.<\/p>\n

Best Supporting Actor<\/h3>\n

\"inglourious-basterds-christoph-waltz-2.jpg\"Matt Damon, Invictus<\/em>
\nWoody Harrelson, The Messenger<\/em>
\nChristopher Plummer, The Last Station<\/em>
\nStanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones<\/em>
\nChristoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds<\/em><\/p>\n

This is a gimme for Christoph Waltz<\/b>. He’s been getting Oscar talk since Inglourious Basterds<\/em> came out, he’s been winning all the awards up to this point, and if anyone else won this, it would be the upset of the year.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Best Supporting Actress<\/h3>\n

\"MoNique_Precious.jpg\"Penelope Cruz, Nine<\/em>
\nVera Farmiga, Up In The Air<\/em>
\nMaggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart<\/em>
\nAnna Kendrick, Up In The Air<\/em>
\nMo\u00e2\u20ac\u2122Nique, Precious<\/em><\/p>\n

I haven’t seen Precious<\/em> myself, but everyone who has considers Mo’Nique<\/b>‘s win here a done deal. I’ll defer to that, since I think Maggie won’t win on a surprise nomination, Penelope won’t on the weaker of her two performances this year (and she wasn’t the strongest performance in Nine<\/em>, either), and Vera and Anna will cancel each other out.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Best Actor<\/h3>\n

\"Jeff_Bridges_CrazyHeart_72dpi.jpg\"Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart<\/em>
\nGeorge Clooney, Up In The Air<\/em>
\nColin Firth, A Single Man<\/em>
\nMorgan Freeman, Invictus<\/em>
\nJeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker<\/em><\/p>\n

All the momentum right now is behind Jeff Bridges<\/b>, whose Golden Globe for Crazy Heart<\/em> makes him a heavy favorite for Oscar. Invictus<\/em> hasn’t been very visible, A Single Man<\/em> is likely too small a release, and Clooney is almost a token nom for Up in the Air<\/em> (he does a good job, it’s not that Oscar-riffic a role). Jeremy Renner might possibly upset, but look for Bridges to take it.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Best Actress<\/h3>\n

\"blindside.jpg\"Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side<\/em>
\nHelen Mirren, The Last Station<\/em>
\nCarey Mulligan, An Education<\/em>
\nGabourey Sidibe, Precious<\/em>
\nMeryl Streep, Julie & Julia<\/em><\/p>\n

This is a tough one for me. Sandra Bullock is going in as an unlikely favorite, having won the Golden Globe and some other critics and guild awards, but I’m still torn on whether the Academy will actually give it to her. Especially up against such a strong category. Mirren and Streep are simply perfection in everything they do, and the younger generation Mulligan and Sidibe are both brilliant in their films. Yet Bullock is the industry insider, the one whose film was a ginormous hit, and the one who apparently turned in a strong performance after a career of slight romantic comedies and thrillers. That kind of gets the Academy’s attention. So I give Sandra Bullock<\/b> the nod for “will win”, but I stand firm that Carey Mulligan should<\/em> go home with the prize for her mature-beyond-her-years, incredibly subtle performance.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Best Director<\/h3>\n

\"hurtlockerbigelow.jpg\"James Cameron, Avatar<\/em>
\nKathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker<\/em>
\nQuentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds<\/em>
\nLee Daniels, Precious<\/em>
\nJason Reitman, Up In The Air<\/em><\/p>\n

It would be going against years of tradition for Kathryn Bigelow<\/b> not to win Best Director after winning the Directors Guild award a few weeks ago. So that’s my prediction, and I’m sticking to it.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Best Picture<\/h3>\n

\"the-hurt-locker-pic1.jpg\"Avatar<\/em>
\nThe Blind Side<\/em>
\nDistrict 9<\/em>
\nAn Education<\/em>
\nThe Hurt Locker<\/em>
\nInglourious Basterds<\/em>
\nPrecious<\/em>
\nA Serious Man<\/em>
\nUp<\/em>
\nUp In The Air<\/em><\/p>\n

It’s unusual for the Best Picture winner to be different from the Best Director winner, and I’m fairly sure Bigelow is taking that Director prize. Even leaving that aside, The Hurt Locker<\/em><\/b> has a whole lot of momentum on its side right now. Which still surprises me a little. I watched it this week, and it’s quite well-done and I enjoyed it a lot, but it doesn’t strike me as an Oscar film. But what do I know? I expected Up in the Air<\/em> to be the frontrunner, and though it is nominated, it has had almost zero Oscar buzz.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Best Adapted Screenplay<\/h3>\n

\"Up-In-The-Air.jpg\"District 9<\/em>
\nAn Education<\/em>
\nIn The Loop<\/em>
\nPrecious<\/em>
\nUp In The Air<\/em><\/p>\n

I personally think Up in the Air<\/em><\/b> has the best dialogue and the most timely script of any film this year, a throwback to Billy Wilder classics, so I’d like to see it win. And I think it has a good chance, especially since it will likely be shut out of other major categories and it’s such a classically-produced studio film that the Academy will want to honor it somewhere. This is its best shot. In the Loop<\/em> is hilarious, but likely too vulgar for the fuddy Academy; An Education<\/em> is a strong contender, but doesn’t sparkle in the dialogue quite as much as Up in the Air<\/em>. I haven’t seen Precious<\/em>, but have heard much more about its acting than its script, and I doubt District 9<\/em> is really in the running.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Best Original Screenplay<\/h3>\n

\"inglourious-basterds-1.jpg\"The Hurt Locker<\/em>
\nInglourious Basterds<\/em>
\nThe Messenger<\/em>
\nA Serious Man<\/em>
\nUp<\/em><\/p>\n

This would seem to be a showdown between Inglourious Basterds<\/em> and A Serious Man<\/em> – two films in which likely our best currently-working writer\/directors turn in some of their best work. But Inglourious Basterds<\/em><\/b> is inarguably Tarantino’s best work, so I give it the edge over the Coens this time around.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Film Editing<\/h3>\n

\"2-the-hurt-locker.jpg\"Avatar<\/em>
\nDistrict 9<\/em>
\nThe Hurt Locker<\/em>
\nInglourious Basterds<\/em>
\nPrecious<\/em><\/p>\n

Editing often goes to Best Picture, so my prediction here sticks with The Hurt Locker<\/em><\/b>. And really, it deserves it here, no problem.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Cinematography<\/h3>\n

\"weisse-band-1.jpg\"Avatar<\/em>
\nHarry Potter & the Half-Blood Prince<\/em>
\nThe Hurt Locker<\/em>
\nInglourious Basterds<\/em>
\nThe White Ribbon<\/em><\/p>\n

All of these are gorgeous-looking films, but I’m going to give the edge to The White Ribbon<\/em><\/b>, not only because it’s the only black and white film in the bunch, but because it uses its black and white to the best possible effect. Also, it just won the Cinematographers’ guild award.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Art Direction<\/h3>\n

\"avatar_pandora.jpg\"Avatar<\/em>
\nImaginarium of Doctor Parnassus<\/em>
\nNine<\/em>
\nSherlock Holmes<\/em>
\nThe Young Victoria<\/em><\/p>\n

Another category where all of the nominees are quality contenders. The art direction was one of the few things I loved unequivocally about Avatar<\/em><\/b>, so I would be neither surprised nor disappointed to see it win. I doubt Nine<\/em> will win with its dark and stagey art direction, but Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus<\/em>‘s brilliantly imaginative look (or looks – there are at least four or five distinct ones in different parts of the film) and Sherlock Holmes<\/em>‘s steampunk Britain could mount a challenge.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Makeup<\/h3>\n

\"star-trek.jpg\"Il Divo<\/em>
\nStar Trek<\/em>
\nThe Young Victoria<\/em><\/p>\n

This is an odd category…a futuristic sci-fi film, an Italian film no one’s ever heard of, and a realistic period film. This seems almost a gimme for Star Trek<\/em><\/b>.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Costume Design<\/h3>\n

\"the_young_victoria.jpg\"Bright Star<\/em>
\nCoco before Chanel<\/em>
\nImaginarium of Doctor Parnassus<\/em>
\nNine<\/em>
\nThe Young Victoria<\/em><\/p>\n

Hmmm, will the Academy give their award for costume design to the film about the actual clothing designer? Possibly. Once again, the Academy has gone totally period in this category, and really, any of these could take it. But I’ll throw the prediction to The Young Victoria<\/em><\/b>.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Best Foreign Film<\/h3>\n

\"Weisse_band_01_pieni.jpg\"Ajami<\/em>, Israel
\nEl Secretro de sus Ojo<\/em>, Argentina
\nThe Milk of Sorrow<\/em>, Peru
\nUn Prophete<\/em>, France
\nThe White Ribbon<\/em>, Germany<\/p>\n

This is a fight to the death between Un prophete<\/em> and The White Ribbon<\/em>. Perhaps predictably, I’m guessing the one that I’ve seen will win – The White Ribbon<\/em><\/b>. Even though it is the only one I’ve seen, it is really, REALLY good.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Best Animated Film<\/h3>\n

\"29up_600.jpg\"Coraline<\/em>
\nFantastic Mr. Fox<\/em>
\nThe Princess and The Frog<\/em>
\nThe Secret of Kells<\/em>
\nUp<\/em><\/p>\n

SUCH a strong year for animated features this year. There were at least five others that would been nomination-worthy. I’d love it if one of the stop-motion films got it, and I think of this set, The Fantastic Mr. Fox<\/em> is the one that will be remembered the best for the longest, but I doubt anything is going to stop Pixar from gaining another Oscar with Up<\/em><\/b>.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Best Original Score<\/h3>\n

\"holmes-downey.jpg\"Avatar<\/em>
\nFantastic Mr. Fox<\/em>
\nThe Hurt Locker<\/em>
\nSherlock Holmes<\/em>
\nUp<\/em><\/p>\n

Going on the record now to say that if Avatar<\/em> wins this, I’m puncturing my eardrums. Metaphorically. Sorry, James Horner, recycling bits of your other scores into bland program music does not make for the best score of the year. Honestly, I think I’d pick Sherlock Holmes<\/em> myself – that was a really interesting score that picked up on themes and characterization in the film and rendered them musically. But I’m not sure it’s likely to win. Fantastic Mr. Fox<\/em> might, but I remember the song parts of the score more than the actual score, and those don’t count. Eh, I think I’ll stick with Sherlock Holmes<\/em><\/b>.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Best Original Song<\/h3>\n

\"crazyheart.jpg\"Almost There, Princess and the Frog<\/em>
\nDown in New Orleans, Princess and the Frog<\/em>
\nLoin de Paname, Paris 36<\/em>
\nTake It All, Nine<\/em>
\nThe Weary Kind, Crazy Heart<\/em><\/p>\n

Two songs from Princess and the Frog<\/em> might cancel out, no one saw Paris 36<\/em>, and while “Take It All” was one of the best numbers in Nine<\/em>, that was mostly due to Marion Cotillard, not the song itself. That leaves “The Weary Kind”<\/b>, which based on the snippets in the Crazy Heart<\/em> trailer, is actually fairly good. So we’ll go with that.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Sound Editing<\/h3>\n

\"hurt-locker-june2-590x3311.jpg\"Avatar<\/em>
\nThe Hurt Locker<\/em>
\nInglourious Basterds<\/em>
\nStar Trek<\/em>
\nUp<\/em><\/p>\n

I had a sound designer friend explain to me the difference between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing; Editing is the creation and placement of sounds, whereas Mixing is the layering and direction of sounds. Got it? But I usually pick the same film for both categories (which exist separately largely because there are two separate unions for editing and mixing). This time, The Hurt Locker<\/em><\/b>.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Sound Mixing<\/h3>\n

\"TheAvatar<\/em>
\nThe Hurt Locker<\/em>
\nInglourious Basterds<\/em>
\nStar Trek<\/em>
\nTransformers: Revenge of the Fallen<\/em><\/p>\n

The Hurt Locker<\/em><\/b><\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Best Visual Effects<\/h3>\n

\"avatar-visual.jpg\"Avatar<\/em>
\nDistrict 9<\/em>
\nStar Trek<\/em><\/p>\n

And here’s a category I think Avatar<\/em><\/b> deserves to win, and I’m pretty sure it will.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Best Documentary<\/h3>\n

\"the-cove-movie-073009-xlg.jpg\"Burma VJ<\/em>
\nThe Cove<\/em>
\nFood, Inc.<\/em>
\nMost Dangerous Man in America<\/em>
\nWhich Way Home<\/em><\/p>\n

The Cove<\/em><\/b> has been getting rave reviews all year from all quarters, so I think it would be pretty shocking for it not to win.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Best Documentary Short<\/h3>\n

\"chinas-unnatural-disaster-1024.jpg\"China\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Unnatural Disaster<\/em>
\nLast Campaign of Booth Gardner<\/em>
\nLast Truck: Closing of a GM Plant<\/em>
\nMusic by Prudence<\/em>
\nRabbit \u00c3\u00a0 la Berlin<\/em><\/p>\n

I have seen none of these, but I’m placing my bet on China’s Unnatural Disaster<\/em><\/b>, a film about the Sichuan earthquake. Just for reference, Last Campaign of Booth Gardner<\/em> is about Washington congressman Booth Gardner’s attempts to pass laws allowing assisted suicide, Last Truck<\/em> is about a rural GM plant closing down and the effects of that on the community, nearly all of whom worked for GM, Music by Prudence<\/em> is about a disabled woman in Zimbabwe finding strength by making music (that kind of uplifting story in the face of adversity makes this a contender, too), and Rabbit a la Berlin<\/em> is about a warren of rabbits that lived between the Berlin walls during the cold war and their attempts to readjust after the walls came down. See, I did my homework!<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Best Animated Short<\/h3>\n

\"LogoramaLA.jpg\"French Roast<\/em>
\nGranny O\u00e2\u20ac\u2122Grimm\u00e2\u20ac\u2122s Sleeping Beauty<\/em>
\nThe Lady and the Reaper<\/em>
\nLogorama<\/em>
\nA Matter of Loaf and Death<\/em><\/p>\n

All of these shorts are available online, and I collected them all in a post on Row Three<\/a>, so check that out. My prediction is for Logorama<\/em><\/b>, but they’re all actually really good.<\/p>\n

<\/div>\n

Best Live Action Short<\/h3>\n

\"kavi.jpg\"The Door<\/em>
\nInstead of Abracadabra<\/em>
\nKavi<\/em>
\nMiracle Fish<\/em>
\nThe New Tenants<\/em><\/p>\n

None of these are available online. Some are available on iTunes, though – I saw Instead of Abracadabra<\/em> when it was part of a set of Sundance shorts available for free on iTunes. It was quite good, but I’m not sure it can beat out Kavi<\/em><\/b>, the story of an Indian boy growing up essentially in slavery. The others I wasn’t really able to find out very much about.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We’re only a day away from the Academy Awards, and I figured I’d put up a few prediction thoughts. We’ll be live-blogging the ceremony itself over on Row Three, so look out for that starting around 4pm PST. Plus, if you think you’ve got a good peg on the awards this year, throw your predictions […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[2],"tags":[533],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":17558,"url":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/2011\/02\/cinema-101-the-academy-awards-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":3265,"position":0},"title":"Cinema 101: The Academy Awards","author":"Jandy","date":"February 27, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"I thought it might be fun to pull back and look a bit at the history of the awards and the Academy that bestows them, as well as how the Awards work. Read More","rel":"","context":"In "Cinema 101"","block_context":{"text":"Cinema 101","link":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/category\/film\/cinema-101\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/cinema-101-academy.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":17569,"url":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/2011\/02\/join-rowthrees-oscar-live-chat\/","url_meta":{"origin":3265,"position":1},"title":"Join RowThree’s Oscar Live Chat","author":"Jandy","date":"February 27, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"As we do every year, RowThree is hosting an Oscar live chat throughout the ceremony. Last year was the first year I participated in it, and it was definitely the best part of the whole Oscar shindig. No holds barred, everything's open game. Come out and join us, starting at\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Film"","block_context":{"text":"Film","link":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/category\/film\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2011\/02\/r3liveblogsoscar1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":1027,"url":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/2008\/02\/oscar-predictions\/","url_meta":{"origin":3265,"position":2},"title":"Oscar Predictions","author":"Jandy","date":"February 20, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"The Oscars are four days away, and I figure it's about time I throw some predictions out there. Also, I don't want the entire front page of the blog to be all American Idol posts, so I had to post about something else. Best Actor George Clooney - Michael Clayton\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Film"","block_context":{"text":"Film","link":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/category\/film\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2078,"url":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/2009\/02\/last-minute-oscar-predictions\/","url_meta":{"origin":3265,"position":3},"title":"Last minute Oscar predictions","author":"Jandy","date":"February 22, 2009","format":false,"excerpt":"Figured I should get some Oscar predictions out there, since the ceremony is, like, tonight. They're going to be relatively terse, though - my computer died on Friday and my newly ordered one has not yet arrived, so I'm tapping this out on my iPhone. Which is not optimal for\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Film"","block_context":{"text":"Film","link":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/category\/film\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":1032,"url":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/2008\/02\/scattered-oscar-thoughts\/","url_meta":{"origin":3265,"position":4},"title":"Scattered Oscar Thoughts","author":"Jandy","date":"February 25, 2008","format":false,"excerpt":"I didn't liveblog the Oscars because I was busy hosting an awesome Oscar party with awesome people at it. It was the most fun ever. And it only made it better that the Academy got most everything exactly right! I got 14 out of 24 categories right (that's after I\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Film"","block_context":{"text":"Film","link":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/category\/film\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":33575,"url":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/2014\/02\/judging-films-as-oscar-winners\/","url_meta":{"origin":3265,"position":5},"title":"Judging Films as Oscar-Winners","author":"Jandy","date":"February 19, 2014","format":false,"excerpt":"As Oscar-season hits a fever pitch, of course lots of people are also looking at the history of the Oscars and what's won in previous years, and what maybe SHOULD have won in previous years. This is a fun pastime, one I've certainly indulged in it myself (as evidenced by\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Film"","block_context":{"text":"Film","link":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/category\/film\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/Oscar-feat1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/Oscar-feat1.jpg?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/02\/Oscar-feat1.jpg?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3265"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3265"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3265\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3265"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3265"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.the-frame.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3265"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}