The Oscars are four days away, and I figure it’s about time I throw some predictions out there. Also, I don’t want the entire front page of the blog to be all American Idol posts, so I had to post about something else.
Best Actor
The Oscar will go to: Daniel Day-Lewis. He’s the odds-on favorite, it’s a showy performance, and Oscar loves showy performances.
My pick: not Daniel Day-Lewis. I don’t like showy performances. I haven’t seen In the Valley of Elah or Michael Clayton, so I might go with Viggo. He acts with his eyes.
Best Actress
The Oscar will go to: Julie Christie. It’s something of a close race between Christie and Marion Cotillard. I haven’t seen La Vie en Rose, but I predict the Academy will go with the classic Brit playing the Alzheimer’s patient rather than the newcomer in a French film. The Academy is nothing if not xenophobic.
My pick: Julie Christie. Xenophobia or no, Christie is simply luminous in this film. And, like I said, haven’t seen the other. I’m really glad Ellen Page got nominated, because she’s incredible, but not ready for a win yet.
Best Supporting Actor
The Oscar will go to: Javier Bardem. Another one that everyone seems fairly agreed about, though the Supporting Actor category is one in which Oscar often likes to be contrary. I think I’d put up Tom Wilkinson or Hal Holbrook for wild cards, then, even though I haven’t seen the films–often the contrarian Oscar voters pick an old guy in here.
My pick: Javier Bardem. But I haven’t seen any of the other films. My non-nominated backup would be Paul Dano in There Will Be Blood.
Best Supporting Actress
The Oscar will go to: Amy Ryan. It’s probably between her and Cate Blanchett, and I’m really not sure who will win. I’m predicting Ryan, though, because in the supporting categories Oscar likes either newcomers (Ryan’s not “new,” but she broke through in public consciousness with this role) or older performers who haven’t won before. That could give Ruby Dee an edge, but since I hadn’t heard about her at all until the nomination, she probably doesn’t have enough buzz. It could also give Ronan a boost, but I suspect she’s still too young, and that Atonement has exhausted its hype.
My pick: This category is too close for me to be willing to pick without having seen the rest of the films. Tilda Swinton in particular is usually incredible, and I’d definitely need to see Michael Clayton and I’m Not There before choosing, because my gut feeling is to give it to her or Blanchett. I have seen Gone Baby Gone, and I personally wouldn’t give it to Amy Ryan, because the performance verged on histrionic to me (partially the character, I know).
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Oscar will go to: No Country for Old Men. Although I’d think Atonement has a very good chance as well, since the book is so acclaimed. Or it could be a chance for TWBB to jump in, and I wouldn’t mind. Since I’m shutting it out everywhere else. (As you’ll probably notice, I didn’t like it very much; I’m hoping to get my January recap up soon, and then you’ll see.)
My pick: No Country for Old Men. I haven’t read the book in its entirety, but my friend who is writing her dissertation on Cormac McCarthy says that they stuck very close to the book and the things they did change made it better. That’s about as great an endorsement as an adapted screenplay could receive.
Best Original Screenplay
The Oscar will go to: Juno. I think it’s pretty much a lock at this point; it won’t win Picture, Actress, or Director, and the Academy will want to recognize it somewhere after its runaway success. Since its screenplay is the most touted thing about it, this is the obvious award for it to win.
My pick: Juno. It’s a bit too clever for its own good, but the only other one of these I’ve seen is Ratatouille. I’m curious to compare it to The Savages, though, which I suspect would give Juno a run for my vote if I had seen it.
Best Director
The Oscar will go to: Joel and Ethan Coen. Because director and picture usually go together, and I’m hoping so hard for a NCFOM win. :)
My pick: Joel and Ethan Coen. No only is NCFOM amazing, they deserve one in general. I’m really glad for Schnabel’s nomination though, and I would sort of be secretly thrilled if he won. As long is it didn’t indicate a no-win for NCFOM, of course.
Best Foreign Language Film
The Oscar will go to: The Counterfeiters. This is the only one of these films I’d even heard of before the nominations, so it’s likely to have more buzz than the others to help push it over the edge.
My pick: 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days. No, it’s not nominated. Which is such a total travesty that I am again boycotting the Foreign Language award. (Oh, and that’s leaving out The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, which wasn’t eligible under current [stupid] Academy rules; if it were, I’d pick that with 4 Months a close second.)
Best Picture
The Oscar will go to: No Country for Old Men. There Will Be Blood had a surge of buzz a few weeks ago, but most people seem to be backing NCFOM now, which makes me very happy. Then there’s the possibility that they will split the “dark side of humanity” vote and leave room for Atonement or even Juno to pop in, but I don’t really think that will happen.
My pick: No Country for Old Men. It’s such a perfect application of cinematic filmmaking to a dark and ambiguous story.
more categories after the jump
Read More
